WDPN31 PGTW 291500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 291200Z4 MAY 02 TO 300000Z3 MAY 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM WEST 
OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 
6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 290530Z9 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 291010Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR 
MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS LOST ITS CORE 
CONVECTION AND HAS BECOME DIFFICULT TO LOCATE. EARLIER ANIMATED 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAD BECOME ELONGATED, WHILE THE DEEP 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST WAS ASSOCIATED WITH SPEED CONVERGENCE. 
   B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 24 
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC LOW CURRENTLY OVER 
CENTRAL CHINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN WITH ITS 
ASSOCIATED FRONT EXTENDING OVER OKINAWA AND TAIWAN. AFTER 24 HOURS, 
DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW IS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN 
AS THE REMNANTS OF TD 06W TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, NGPS, GFDN, UK MET 
GLOBAL, AND NCEP AVN.   
   C. TD 06W SHOULD CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AS IT INTERACTS WITH LAND 
AND EVENTUALLY MERGES INTO THE BOUNDARY MENTIONED IN PARA 2.B.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITIES DO NOT MEET WIND RADII 
CRITERIA.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/NUTONGLA//



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