WDPN31 PGTW 281500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W WARNING NR 
03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 281200Z3 MAY 02 TO 011200Z4 JUN 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 06W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 
NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 281130Z5 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281000Z1 QUIKSCAT PASS. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 
KNOTS. A 281024Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSMI) PASS 
INDICATES THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS BROAD 
AND DECOUPLED FROM A POSSIBLE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ANIMATED 
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN CYCLING OVER THE 
PAST 12 HOURS AND REMAINS SOUTH OF THE LLCC. THE QUIKSCAT PASS 
REVEALED THAT THE HIGHEST WINDS ARE CONCENTRATED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF 
THE LLCC.
   B. TD 06W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO 
DISSIPATE AS IT MERGES WITH A BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EXTEND 
TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
WITH THE MERGE AND DISSIPATION, BUT DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TRACK. THE 
FIRST GROUP CONSISTING OF GFDN, UK MET GLOBAL (EGRR), AND NCEP AVN 
AGREE ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK. NGPS FAVORS A SLOW MOVEMENT 
NORTHWARD DUE TO A WEAKER STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND POOR 
INITIALIZATION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE AND 
THE FIRST GROUP OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.   
   C. TD 06W IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A BROAD SURFACE CIRCULATION AND 
ENCOUNTER INCREASING UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES AS IT TRACKS TO THE 
NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A WEAK TROPICAL 
DEPRESSION AND DISSIPATE AFTER 48 HOURS.
   D. CURRENT AND FORECAST INTENSITIES DO NOT MEET WIND RADII 
CRITERIA.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/NUTONGLA//



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