WDPN31 PGTW 200300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 220000Z4 MAY 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 VISIBLE 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 AND 127 KNOTS. APPROXIMATELY 3 
HOURS AGO, ENHANCED I/R AND MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION DEPICTED A 
COLLAPSE OF THE INNER CONVECTIVE RING OVER THE WEST QUADRANT. TEMPS 
OVER THE EYE HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE EYE HAS BECOME CLOUD 
FILLED. 
   B. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND 
A MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD JUST EAST OF OKINAWA 
ARE FORECAST TO INFLUENCE A RAPID NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE 
FORECAST PERIOD. A BLEND OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP AVN, 
JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5), AND COAMPS WAS 
USED AS A BASIS FOR THE FORECAST. 
   C. THIS MORNINGS UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALED THAT THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE MOVED ABOVE THE SYNOPTIC SCALE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND 
BENEATH MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLIES. BASED ON THE RECENT CHANGES 
TO THE INNER STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE CHANGES IN THE 
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT, WE EXPECT TO SEE A SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY 
DROP OFF. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, EXPECT FURTHER 
WEAKENING AND AN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE 
AGGRESSIVELY INTERACTS WITH THE TY 05W. 
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 191955Z0 QUIKSCAT PASS AND A 
192019Z2 TRMM PASS. FORECAST RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN 
AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM AND SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS AS THE 
SYSTEM MOVES BENEATH STRONG UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. WIND RADII 
ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR EXTRATROPICAL FORECAST POSITIONS.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//



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