WDPN31 PGTW 191500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 05W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 191200Z3 TO 221200Z7 MAY 02.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 05W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 
NM SOUTH OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 191130Z5 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS AND CURRENTLY HAS A WELL DEVELOPED 30 NM DIAMETER 
CLOUD FREE EYE. 
   B. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND 
THE MAJOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHWARD OVER KOREA WILL 
INFLUENCE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BLEND 
OF NOGAPS, GFDN, NCEP AVN, JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON, THE AFWA 
MESOSCALE (MM5), AND COAMPS MODELS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR THE 
FORECAST. 
   C. STY 05W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY DURING 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH OF THE RIDGE AND 
BENEATH THE SOUTHWESTERLIES. AFTERWARD, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO 
BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AND AN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 190847Z9 QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM 
AND SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BENEATH THE 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. WIND RADII ARE NOT INCLUDED FOR 
EXTRATROPICAL FORECAST POSITIONS.
FORECAST TEAM: CANTRELL/JACOBS/SHERRY/RONSSE//

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