WDPN31 PGTW 180300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 05W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 180000Z9 TO 210000Z3 MAY 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 05W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 355 NM WEST 
OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 172330Z6 VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION AND THIS 
AFTERNOONS QUIKSCAT PASS DEPICT A PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING 
INTO THE VORTEX FROM THE WEST QUADRANT. OUTFLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO 
IMPROVE BASED ON WATER VAPOR ANIMATION. 
   B. A POLEWARD ORIENTED (SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST) MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
AND A MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN SHOULD 
INFLUENCE A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A BLEND 
OF NOGAPS, AVN, JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON, GFDN, THE BOM TLAPS AND 
TCLAPS, THE AFWA MESOSCALE (MM5) AND COAMPS WAS USED AS A BASIS FOR 
OUR FORECAST. 
   C. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY, 200 MB ANAL TRENDS, AND NWP INDICATE A 
SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION TREND DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS AS 
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OVER EASTERN CHINA AND AN UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE PROPAGATING EAST OF JAPAN COMBINE TO ENHANCE THE POLEWARD 
VENTILATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. AFTERWARD, A WEAKENING TREND IS 
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM MOVES UNDER THE UPPER SOUTHWESTERLIES. AT 
WHICH TIME, AN EXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO COMMENCE.       
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 172044Z8 QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM 
AND SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT EFFECTS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BENEATH THE 
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES. 
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//



NNNN