WDPN31 PGTW 171500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 05W (HAGIBIS) WARNING 
NR 07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 161200Z0 TO 191200Z3 MAY 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 05W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM 
SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 161130Z2 ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25, 35, AND 45 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OVER 
THE LAST 6 HOURS. 
   B. TS 05W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THIS 
RIDGE IS FORECASTED TO MOVED TOWARDS THE NORTHERN MARIANAS ISLANDS 
AND CHANGE THE STEERING PROPAGATION OF 05W TO A MORE POLEWARD TRACK 
AFTER 36 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL 
MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, AVIATION, UKMET GLOBAL, AND THE 
JAPANESE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. TWO AIDS, THE JMA 
GLOBAL AND GFDN, CONTINUE TO SHOW A SLOW SPEED OF ADVANCE, WHILE THE 
OTHER DYNAMIC AIDS FAVOR A WITH A MORE RAPID PACE ASSOCIATED WITH 
STRONGER INTERACTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AFTER 36 HOURS. THE 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A THE BLEND OF THE ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS WITH 
TENDENCY TOWARDS THE FASTER DYNAMIC AIDS KEEPING WITH PERSISTENCE.   
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL 
RATE THROUGH THE 36 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE SPEED OF ADVANCE 
PREVENTING VERTICAL STACKING AND DEEPENING. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM 
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS 
POLEWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERATED BY A 
DEVELOPING EXTRATROPICAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN.    
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/MORRIS/EDBERG//