WDPN31 PGTW 150300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 150000Z6 APR TO 180000Z9 MAY 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTHWEST OF CHUUK OVER A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING EASTWARD FROM PALAU. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 142330Z3 MULTI-SPECTRAL ANIMATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS BANDING FEATURE DEVELOPMENT TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. B. A LOW/MID LEVEL SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDING POLEWARD OVER CHUUK SHOULD INFLUENCE THE SYSTEMS TRACK 36 HOURS. THEN, A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD NORTHWEST OF THE MARIANA ISLANDS FORCING THE SYSTEM TO TAKE A MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AND REGIONAL MODELS (NOGAPS, AVN RUN, UKMET SPECTRAL AND COAMPS) ALL INDICATE THIS SCENARIO. THE AVN RUN, UKMET, AND COAMPS ARE THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH TURN TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM BY 72. THIS MAYBE CAUSED BY THE MODELS INTERACTION WITH THE DISTURBANCE SOUTHWEST OF PALAU. THE AVN RUN ACTUALLY MERGES BOTH INTO ONE SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE NWP. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVN RUN, THE JMA GLOBAL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA// NNNN