WDPN31 PGTW 060300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W WARNING NR 02// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 APR TO 090000Z9 APR 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 04W HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATION DEPICTS WELL DEFINED LOW CLOUD/TOWERING CUMULUS LINES DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE VORTEX. B. A MATURE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM SITUATED TO THE NORTHWEST OF TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT AND INFLUENCE THE MOTION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVAILABLE NWP (NOGAPS, AVN RUN OF THE MRF, AND JMA GLOBAL) ALL INDICATE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (XT) BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. AVN AND THE JMA GLOBAL REVEAL A FASTER SPEED OF ADVANCE COMPARED TO NOGAPS WHICH ALSO INDICATES A CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SYSTEM. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE AVN RUN, THE JMA GLOBAL, AND THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS. C. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AS ENHANCED VENTILATION ON THE POLEWARD SIDE CONTINUES. THE AVN RUN ALSO INDICATES FURTHER DEEPENING AS A COMPLEX XT SYSTEM BEYOND THE 72 HOUR PERIOD. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/JACOBS/SHERRY// NNNN