WDPN31 PGTW 240300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 MAR TO 250000Z7 MAR 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM 
EAST OF NHA TRANG IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 231730Z6 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY 
ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED IMAGERY INDICATES DEVELOPING 
CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC AS THE DAWN BROKE ON THE SYSTEM. RECENT 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER 
THE LLCC. AN APPROACHING MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF CHINA AND STRETCHES DOWN ACROSS 
VIETNAM.
   B. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO TRACK INCREASINGLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. 
THE SYSTEM WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH 
AND ABSORBED WITHIN 245 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING 
OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, COAMPS, GFDN, AND MM5 ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF 
THE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 12 
HOURS, AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO BUILD. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN 
TO WEAKEN UNDER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, BEFORE BEING 
ABSORBED INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WITH IN THE 24 
HOURS.    
   D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA.
FORECAST TEAM: WAKEHAM/SHERRY/GOWDY//

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