WDPN31 PGTW 221500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 MAR TO 251200Z0 MAR 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 30 NM 
WEST OF THE CITY OF ILOILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
221130Z9 ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. INCREASING DEEP 
CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) AS DEPICTED BY ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
   B. THE SYSTEM REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG 11.5N7 AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
TRACKING NORTHWEST THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS THE SYSTEM SHOULD 
BEGIN TO TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST GUIDED BY THE MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, UKMET 
SPECTRAL, GFDN, NCEP AVIATION AND AFWA MM5. THE NGPS AND UKMET 
SPECTRAL INITIALIZED BEST OUT OF THE AVAILABLE AIDS AND THEY AGREE 
WITH THE ABOVE FORECAST SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED PERSISTENCE, 
A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL AIDS, AND THE SHALLOW/MEDIUM ADVECTION 
MODELS BASED OFF THE NOGAPS MODEL RUN. 
   C. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT ABOVE CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BENEATH THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY THROUGH 
36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TRACKS 
INTO A COL BETWEEN BRANCHES OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER 36 
HOURS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKEN AND IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING 
VERTICAL SHEAR ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS AND COLDER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES.    
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//