WDPN31 PGTW 230300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 
15//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 MAR TO 260000Z8 MAR 02.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MANILA IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FORM OVER THE LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES 
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED INTO THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 
35 KNOTS.
   B. THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING 
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IS EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE A NORTHWEST 
TRACK THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO TRACK 
TOWARDS THE NORTH GUIDED BY THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, NCEP 
AVIATION, COAMPS AND AFWA MM5. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, 
A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL AIDS, AND THE SHALLOW/MEDIUM ADVECTION 
MODELS.
   C. TD 03W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS 
IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO 
WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING 
VERTICAL SHEAR ABOVE THE RIDGE AXIS AND COLDER SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES.    
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/HOLWEG/SHERRY//

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