WDPN31 PGTW 210300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03W WARNING NR 07// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 FEB TO 240000Z6 MAR 02. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 03W, LOCATED OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA APPROXIMATELY 70 NM EAST OF MINDANAO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. A 202152Z2 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED A WEAK BANDING FEATURE OUTLINING THE VORTEX CENTER. WEAK LOW CLOUD LINES IN MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY HAVE HELPED TO PINPOINT THE CENTER ABOUT 25 NM SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. B. LOW/MID LEVEL HIGH SITUATED NORTHEAST OF LUZON WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE BASHI CHANNEL IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND DRIFT EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN AND AVN AGREE WITH ABOVE SYNOPTIC PROGNOSIS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NWP BLEND. C. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST LATE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS A TRACK TOWARD THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR A SMALL SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/WINGEART/MAYER/TON/DUKES// BT #XXXX NNNN