WDPN31 PGTW 061500 
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 061200Z9 TO 091200Z2 NOV 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 03C (HUKO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 460 NM 
NORTH OF WAKE ISLAND, AND HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
0N SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 55 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEING 
SHEARED FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC 
ZONE.
   B. TS 03C IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AND ACCELERATE 
AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES 
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE 
COMPLETE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF 
AVN, NOGAPS, GFDN, THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) 
MODELS, AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. UKMET IS THE FASTEST 
MODEL, MERGING THE SYSTEM ON THE EDGE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
EXTENDING FROM THE MID-LATITUDE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. OUR 
FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 03C IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS 
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FROM UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM. EXTRATROPICAL POSITIONS DO NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN// 
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