WDPN31 PGTW 031500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 03C (HUKO) WARNING NR 40// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 031200Z6 TO 061200Z9 NOV 02. A. AT 031200Z6, TYPHOON (TY) 03C (HUKO) WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N5 179.8E5, APPROXIMATELY 760 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, AND WAS TRACKING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 0N SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES AT 030733Z6 AND 030859Z5 REVEAL THE DEEP CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND DRY AIR BEING ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. B. TY 03C IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGH 48 HOURS. AFTERWARDS, A POLEWARD TURN IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS RECURVATURE INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF AVN, NOGAPS, GFDN, THE JAPANESE GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, COAMPS, MM5 AND UKMET (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MID PERIOD. FROM THE MID- PERIOD TO THE END OF THE FORECAST THE MODELS DIVERGE AT THE POINT OF RECURVATURE, WITH EGRR BEING FURTHEST EAST AND JGSM FURTHEST WEST; HOWEVER, ALL DO RECURVE IN APPROXIMATELY 42 HOURS. OUR FORECAST TRACK IS A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. TY 03C IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT REMAINS UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AFTERWARDS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH BY THE END OF THE FORECAST AS IT ENCOUNTERS MODERATE SHEAR IN THE UPPER LEVELS DUE TO AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ// NNNN