WDPN31 PGTW 080300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (MITAG) WARNING NR 38// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 080000Z8 TO 110000Z2 MAR 02. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 072330Z5 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS. THE LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL WITH THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 90 NM TO THE NORTHEAST. B. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO STRONG MONSOON NORTHEASTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), AND BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TCLAPS MODELS. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE TRACK IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE MODELS. C. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN COOL DRY AIR AND ENCOUNTER STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A 072107Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET FORECAST WIND RADII CRITERIA THEREAFTER. E. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CORRECTED DIRECTION FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN PARA 2.A. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/MAYER/LAM/EDBERG/BOSTIC//