WDPN31 PGTW 060300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MITAG) WARNING NR 
30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 TO 090000Z9 MAR 02.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DAPA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH AT 7 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 
MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 TO 140 KNOTS. 
MULTI-SPECTRAL AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A 32 
NM EYE COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY DEEP CONVECTION. 
   B. STY 02W CONTINUES TO STEER UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW TO 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED AROUND 15.0N6 143.0E8 EAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO TRACK NORTHWARD AND INCREASE TRACK SPEED 
AS IT PASSES THE RIDGE AXIS. STY 02W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
RECURVING AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST ERODES UNDER THE WESTERLIES 
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), JMA GLOBAL,
JMA TYPHOON, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. ALL MODELS EXCEPT GFDN 
INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD RESULTING IN AN INITIAL 
SLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK, AND THEN A LOOP SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH. THIS 
APPEARS TO BE A LOW PROBABILITY SCENARIO BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY 
AND THE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT. GFDN MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE 
FORECAST PERIOD, RECURVING TO THE NORTHEAST AROUND THE MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE TO THE EAST. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO BEGIN 
WITHIN 24 HOURS AS COOL AIR IS DRAWN INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTH 
AND TRANSITION WILL BE NEARLY COMPLETE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF PERSISTENCE, 
BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND GFDN. 
   C. STY 02W SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT CONTINUES 
ITS NORTHEAST TURN FOR RECURVATURE. AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION 
CONTINUES INTENSITY SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE MORE RAPIDLY. 
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST 
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/KUMAGA//