WDPN31 PGTW 051500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (MITAG) WARNING NR 
28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 051200Z8 TO 081200Z1 MAR 02.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM 
NORTHEAST OF SAMAR, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
051130Z0 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLIES NORTH 
OF THE SYSTEM HAVE ENAHNCED THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL RESULTING 
IN A PERIOD OF INTENSIFICATION THE PAST 12 HOURS. A RECENT SPECIAL 
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE PASS REVEALS A 25 NM EYE FEATURE WITH A SOLID 
RING OF SURROUNDING DEEP CONVECTION.   
   B. STY 02W HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THIS RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE 
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THE 
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RECURVING AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST 
GIVES WAY TO WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET 
OFFICE (EGRR), JMA GLOBAL, JMA TYPHOON, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS.  
ALL MODELS EXCEPT GFDN INDICATE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE PERIOD 
RESULTING IN AN INITIAL SLOW NORTH-NORTHEAST TRACK, AND THEN A LOOP 
SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH. GFDN MAINTAINS THE VORTEX THROUGH THE 
PERIOD AND RECURVES THE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND WESTERLIES 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND 
FIELD ANALYSIS, RECURVATURE TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST IS THE MOST 
SUITABLE SOLUTION. THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
PERSISTENCE, BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND GFDN.
   C. STY 02W SHOULD REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 6 
TO 12 HOURS AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. THEREAFTER, 
THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASED VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST 
WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/CUTMAN//



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