WDPN31 PGTW 050300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MITAG) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 080000Z8 MAR 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM 
NORTHEAST OF DAPA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 
VISIBLE AND MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 115 TO 127 
KNOTS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM 
IS STARTING TO BECOME SHEARED AND VERTICALLY TILTED AS IT ENTERS THE 
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED 
IMAGERY INDICATES A 25 NM IRREGULAR EYE IS STILL PRESENT.
   B. THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 16.0N7 153.0E9 REMAINS THE 
DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR TY 02W. THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF 
THIS RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO ERODE DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS, 
RESULTING IN A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. A LOW TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AT THE 
SAME LATITUDE OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA EXTENDING EAST OVER LUZON IS 
CREATING HORIZONTAL WIND SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THE TRACK 
SPEED. TY 02W (MITAG) IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER THE UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH, RESULTING IN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
THE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIDERED INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE 
(EGRR), JMA GLOBAL, JMA TYPHOON, AND AVIATION (AVN) MODELS. MODEL 
FORECAST TRACKS ARE GROUPED INTO TWO CLUSTERS AND 1 OUTLIER. ONE 
CLUSTER INCLUDES EGRR, JTYM, AND JGSM  OF WHICH ALL ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT WITH A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGES 
TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE SYSTEM UNTIL THE MID-PERIOD. INCREASING 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER THE FIRST 24 
HOURS IN THIS CLUSTER OF MODELS. AVN AND GFDN, THE SECOND CLUSTER, 
TRACK THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD BUT RECURVE THE SYSTEM SHARPLY TO THE 
NORTHEAST BEGINNING IN THE MID-PERIOD.THE OUTLIER CONSISTS OF 
NOGAPS, TRACKING TY 02W WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS 
BEFORE TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL PHILIPPINE ISLANDS.  
BASED ON RECENT TRENDS AND FIELD ANALYSIS, THE SOLUTIONS POSED BY 
NOGAPS, GFDN AND AVN ARE NOT FAVORED. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND USING THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL CLUSTER.
   C. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 
THE RIDGE AXIS. WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST BASED ON INCREASED 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR RELATED TO ENCOUNTERING THE UPPER LEVEL 
WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ARE BASED ON IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/KUMAGA//