WDPN31 PGTW 031500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MITAG) WARNING NR 20//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 031200Z6 TO 061200Z9 MAR 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 031130Z8 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED 
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS A RAGGED EYE AND INDICATES THE 
DEEP CONVECTION HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED 
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FLATTENING OVER 
LUZON. 
   B. TY 02W REMAINS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 17.0N8 152.0E8. THE 06Z ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 
WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST 
QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), JMA 
TYPHOON, JMA GLOBAL, AND NCEP AVIATION (AVN) MODELS, ARE IN FAIR 
AGREEMENT. NOGAPS, GFDN, AND EGRR TRACK THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE 
WEAKNESS AND INTO A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, RESULTING IN SLOWER 
TRACK SPEEDS BY THE MID-PERIOD. AVN AND THE JMA MODELS SHOW STRONG 
INDICATIONS OF RECURVATURE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE IN THE SECOND SOLUTION MAY 
EXPLAIN THESE DIFFERENCES. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND 
A CONSENSUS OF THE SIX DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A SLOWER THAN 
CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM AND SYNOPTIC DATA.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/MAYER/TON/DUKES//
BT
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