WDPN31 PGTW 011500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (MITAG) WARNING NR 12// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 011200Z3 TO 041200Z7 MAR 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 02W (MITAG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH- SOUTHEAST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON AVAILABLE SYNOPTIC DATA AND 011130Z6 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CYCLING BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH A TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING FEATURE. B. TY 02W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED NEAR 19.0N0 134.0E8 IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS AS THE RIDGE MOVES EAST AND REMAINS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN CHINA IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND DEEPEN RESULTING IN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. TY 02W SHOULD TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THIS WEAKNESS NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), JMA TYPHOON, JMA GLOBAL, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE DYNAMIC AIDS. C. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS TY 02W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AT A LESS THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A MARGINAL UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE- SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/JACOBS/SHERRY//