WDPN31 PGTW 271500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W WARNING NR 04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 271200Z2 FEB TO 021200Z5 MAR 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 271130Z4 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A RECENT MICROWAVE PASS. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 
AND 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. A 270948Z0 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE 
IMAGER PASS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST.
   B. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE 
PHILIPPINE SEA AND EXTENDING EASTWARD ALONG 17.0N8. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS, GFDN, UKMET OFFICE (EGRR), JMA 
TYPHOON, JMA GLOBAL, AND AVIATION MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 
A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MODEL 
FIELDS DEPICT VARYING DEGREES OF EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES INFLUENCING 
TRACK SPEED, HOWEVER, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE APPEARS TO THE DOMINANT 
STEERING MECHANISM AND IS FORECAST TO BUILD EASTWARD IN THE MAJORITY 
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE FOR THE 
EARLY FORECAST SOLUTIONS AND A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE AIDS. THE 
NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF SIX MODELS.
   C. TS 02W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD 
INTO AN AREA OF WEAK TO MODERATE WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZED SYSTEM.  
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/WINGEART/KENDALL/TON/WEAVER//
BT
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