WDPN34 PGTW 081500
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 081200Z1 TO 100000Z1 SEP 02.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 02C (ELE), LOCATED OVER THE NORTHWEST 
PACIFIC, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 081130Z3 ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC). THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 TO 45 KNOTS. SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE 
IMAGER (SSM/I) PASSES AT 080703Z8 AND 080937Z7 REVEAL THAT DEEP 
CONVECTION CONTINUES NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC.
   B. TS 02C IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWEST UNDER THE 
INFLUENCE OF THE LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 
AFTERWARD, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT 
EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING OVER 
JAPAN. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TS 02C TO TRACK POLEWARD AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP 
AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), GFDN, AND JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND 
TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. OUR 
FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS.
   C. TS 02C HAS MAINTAINED INTENSITY FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT 
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AGAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. TS 02C 
WILL THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD OVER INCREASINGLY 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE AND A RECENT 
QUIKSCAT PASS. 
3. FORECAST TEAM: BRYANT/JACOBS/SHERRY/NUTONGLA/JUAREZ//

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