WDPN34 PGTW 060300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 TO 090000Z9 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02C (ELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 290 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
052330Z3 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. ANIMATED VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT 
CONVECTION HAS INCREASED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.
   B. THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF TY 02C IS 
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. TY 02C IS 
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WEAKNESS THROUGH 48 
HOURS AND THEN NORTHWARD BY 72 HOURS. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS 
INCLUDING NOGAPS, NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR), GFDN, 
JAPAN GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT. 
NOGAPS AND GFDN WEAKEN THE RIDGE MORE SLOWLY AND STEER THE SYSTEM 
ALONG THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, TRACKING TY 02C 
FURTHER WEST THAN THE OTHER MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
   C. TY 02C IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS TOWARDS THE 
RIDGE AXIS AND OVER COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.   
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 
A RECENT QUIKSCAT. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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