WDPN34 PGTW 050300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 050000Z5 TO 080000Z8 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02C (ELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 265 NM WEST OF 
MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 042330Z2 VISIBLE AND 
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED 
ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 65 AND 77 KNOTS. A 
042038Z7 SSM/I DEPICTS THE DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLE. 
   B. A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF TY 02C IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN. TY 02C IS FORECAST TO 
TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THIS RIDGE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS INCLUDING NOGAPS, GFDN, JAPAN GLOBAL (JGSM) 
AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. 
NCEP AVIATION (AVN) AND UKMET GLOBAL (EGRR) DEPICT A WEAKER RIDGE, 
TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE POLEWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND 
OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS.
   C. TY 02C IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED 
SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: WINGEART/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN//
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