WDPN34 PGTW 040300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 040000Z4 TO 070000Z7 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02C (ELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS DRIFTED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 
KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
032330Z1 MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY 
IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 
KNOTS. A RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE (SSMI) PASS AND 
VISIBLE IMAGERY REVEAL COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS TO THE NORTHWEST AND A 
12 NM IRREGULAR EYE. 
   B. A PASSING SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS BEGUN TO FILL GIVING WAY TO A 
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THIS RIDGE IS 
EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD EVENTUALLY SETTLING IN NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
THE CYCLONE. AS A RESULT, TY 02C SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY TO THE NORTH 
BEFORE MAKING A TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST IN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS INCLUDING NCEP AVIATION (AVN), UKMET GLOBAL 
(EGRR), NOGAPS, GFDN, JAPAN GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FORECAST. AVN EXHIBITS A POLEWARD 
BIAS DUE TO SLIGHT INTERACTION WITH THE TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS 
BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS. 
   C. TY 02C IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MIDWAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. INITIAL WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT 
PASS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON 
CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: 
VILPORS/KENDALL/DANIEL/RONSSE/SCHAEFER/EDBERG/COOK//