WDPN34 PGTW 020300 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 020000Z2 TO 050000Z5 SEP 02. A. TYPHOON (TY) 02C (ELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 012330Z9 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 KNOTS. A RECENT SSMI PASS INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL HAS STRENGTHENED. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARBY TUTT HAS ABATED. B. A PASSING MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND POLEWARD ORIENTED RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF TY 02C REMAIN DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISMS. TY 02C IS FORECAST TO TRACK POLEWARD TOWARD A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN APPROX 24 TO 36 HOURS, THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. TY 02C MAY IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS POLEWARD MOVEMENT AS THE RIDGE APPROACHES AND TURN NORTHWEST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A SELECTION OF AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON). THE UKMET GLOBAL AND AVN MODELS APPEAR TO BE EXCESSIVELY INTERACTING WITH A MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE SYSTEM. C. TY 02C HAS REDEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 06 HOURS. TY 02C IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DEVELOP THROUGH THE MID-PERIOD BEFORE WEAKENING IN APPROX 48 HOURS UNDER INCREASING SHEAR AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-SIZED SYSTEM. 3. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PIVIN/LAM/KUMAGA/STATEN// NNNN