WDPN34 PGTW 310300
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 310000Z4 AUG 02 TO 030000Z3 SEP 02.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 02C (ELE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 716 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER 
THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 302330Z1 VISIBLE 
AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RECENT SPECIAL SENSOR 
MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 102 AND 115 KNOTS.
   B. ALL NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF TY 02C WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY 
02C IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD, THEN 
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THIS DEVELOPING WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL 
RIDGE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC MODELS (NOGAPS, UKMET SPECTRAL, GFDN, JMA GLOBAL, AND AVN). 
   C. TY 02C IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST 
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM OCEAN 
WATERS.
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON A RECENT QUIKSCAT PASS. 
FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE-
SIZE SYSTEM.
3. FORECAST TEAM: JEFFRIES/SMITH/PIVIN/LAM/KAMAGA/STATEN//
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