WDPN31 PGTW 221500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 
44//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 251200Z0 DEC 01.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 425 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. ENHANCED I/R AND MOONLIGHT 
VIS IMAGERY ALONG WITH THE PAST TWO SSM/I PASSES DEPICT THAT THE 
PRIMARY BANDING FEATURE HAS BECOME STRONGER AND MORE WELL DEFINED 
PARTICULARLY OVER THE EAST QUADRANT. FURTHERMORE, ANOTHER SPIRAL 
BAND HAS DEVELOPED APPROXIMATELY 60 NM WEST OF THE VORTEX CENTER. 
THIS POSSIBLY COULD BE A PRECURSOR TO OUTER EYEWALL DEVELOPMENT. 
   B. THIS EVENINGS NWP 500 MB ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PRONOUNCED 
WEAKNESS EXTENDING ALONG (APPROX) 20.0N2 FROM 135.0E9 TO 150.0E6. 
COMBINED WITH RIDGE MODIFICATION BY STY 31W, (GROWTH OF THE 
PERIPHERAL ANTICYCLONE TO THE SOUTHEAST), A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK 
LATE IN THE PERIOD SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS, WHICH CONTINUES TO EXCESSIVELY INTERACT/MERGE 
WITH A MID-LEVEL REFLECTION OF A MONSOON TROUGH EAST OF MINDANAO, 
ALL NWP AGREE WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER THE 36 HOUR PERIOD. 
THEREFORE, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS.
   C. A 220958Z6 SSM/I PASS AND GMS-5 IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS 
REVEAL LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SHAPE AND SIZE (APPROX 12 NM) OF THE 
EYE. THE PRIMARY BAND HAS NOT CLOSED OFF COMMENCING A CONCENTRIC 
RING CYCLE, BUT AT THIS POINT, IS STILL A REALISTIC SCENARIO OVER 
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. CONSEQUENTLY, 150 KNOTS IS NOT OUT OF THE 
QUESTION. AFTERWARD THIS SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION TREND, A SLOW 
DROP OFF IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ON ITS TRACK TOWARD THE 
WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. 
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY. WIND RADII 
FORECAST IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//