WDPN31 PGTW 230300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 31W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 
46//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 260000Z8 DEC 01.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 31W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM 
EAST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 222330Z2 VISIBLE AND 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 155 KNOTS. VISIBLE AND INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS WITH AN 8 NM ROUND EYE. 
A 222236Z7 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS DEPICTS A 
TIGHTLY-WRAPPED PRIMARY BAND AND WEAKENING INNER EYEWALL CONVECTION. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES EXCELLENT DUAL OUTFLOW OVER 
ALL QUADRANTS. 
   B. STY 31W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF 
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TOWARD A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS. THE 
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH 48 HOURS SHOWING A TURN 
NORTHWARD AFTER 24 HOURS (EAST OF THE NORTHERN MARIANA ISLANDS).  
AFTER 48 HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE RAPIDLY AS IT 
TRACKS INTO STRONG MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND CONSEQUENTLY THE 
DYNAMIC AIDS DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY IN THEIR SPEEDS OF ADVANCE. THE 
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY MODEL IS THE FASTEST MODEL WHILE THE 
NOGAPS MODEL IS THE SLOWEST. THIS DISPARITY IS DUE TO ERRONEOUS 
INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDES. OUR FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND OF 
ALL DYNAMICAL MODELS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH 48 HOURS.   
   C. THE 222236Z7 SSM/I PASS AND GMS-5 IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 
HOURS INDICATE THAT THE INNER EYE HAS DECREASED IN SIZE AND 
WEAKENED. WITH A CONCENTRIC RING CYCLE COMMENCED, EXPECT SLIGHT 
WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS, THEN THE SYSTEM SHOULD MAINTAIN 
INTENSITY THROUGH 36-48 HOURS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE WEAKNESS. 
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND 
SCATTEROMETER DATA. WIND RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY.
FORECAST TEAM: BARLOW/BRYANT/MAYER/TON//
BT
#XXXX
NNNN