WDPN32 PGTW 221500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W WARNING NR 10// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 221200Z7 TO 251200Z0 NOV 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 29W, LOCATED NEAR 8.4N2 116.0E8, APPROXIMATELY 110 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUNTA BAJA HARBOR, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 9 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 221130Z9 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221029Z6 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. THE SSM/I PASS AND ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS DECOUPLE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AS IT ENCOUNTERS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. B. TS 29W IS SITUATED BETWEEN A WEAKNESS IN THE MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS 29W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS (NGPS), JAPAN GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT. NOGAPS AND GFDN INDICATE A QUICK TRACK EAST IN RESPONSE TO THE ENHANCED EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES AND DISSIPATE THE SYSTEM TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ON THE OTHER HAND, EGRR AND JGSM DEPICT A SLOWER TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, AND A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED NUMERICAL MODELS. C. TS 29W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY EARLY IN THE PERIOD, BUT SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES. D. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA// NNNN