WDPN32 PGTW 211500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 29W WARNING NR 6//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 211200Z6 TO 241200Z9 NOV 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM 29W, LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA, HAS 
TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE 
WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211130Z8 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. 
THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 
KNOTS. A 211042Z0 SSM/I PASS DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED LLCC AND A 
PRONOUNCED BANDING FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT.   
   B. LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM LUZON IS FORECAST 
TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF TS 28W FROM THE WEST CREATING A 
REVERSE MONSOON TROUGH EVENT. NOGAPS, THE JMA GLOBAL, AND GFDN 
INDICATE A SLOW DRIFT EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE ENHANCED 
EQUATORIAL WESTERLIES AND DISSIPATION BY THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE AVN 
RUN TRACKS TS 29W NORTHEASTWARD WITH DISSIPATION BY THE 60 HOUR 
TIMEFRAME NEAR THE SULU SEA. A CLOSE EVALUATION AT THE LOW/MID 
STEERING LEVELS REVEALS AGRESSIVE BINARY INTERACTION (MERGING) WITH 
TS 28W IN 60 HOURS. AT THE SAME TIME, A REVERSE MONSOON TROUGH 
SCENARIO SETS UP SENDING THE LARGER TS 28W TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN 
THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE, THE AFOREMENTIONED 
NUMERICAL MODELS WEIGHING HEAVILY ON THE AVN RUN.
   C. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS FORECAST AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED 
TO MOVE BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLIES NEAR 
MID PERIOD.
   D. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/BOSTIC/EDBERG//

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