WDPN31 PGTW 241500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 241200Z9 TO 271200Z2 NOV 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED NEAR 19.0N0 132.0E6, 
APPROXIMATELY 485 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 
WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
OF 25 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN OVERALL 
DECREASE IN CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 241118Z7 SPECIAL 
SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSMI) PASS INDICATES A VERY BROAD LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).  
   B. TD 28W WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EARLY IN THE PERIOD 
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE 
SYSTEM.  BY MID-PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN APPROACHING 
TROUGH THAT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD INTO 
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS, CONSISTING 
OF NOGAPS (NGPS), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS 
NAVY (GFDN), JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), AND UKMET OFFICE 
GLOBAL (EGRR) MODELS, ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. MOST DEPICT THE SYSTEM 
RAPIDLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION. EGRR, HOWEVER, LOSSES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND 
DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM. THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE 
MODELS. THE JTWC FORECAST IS BASED ON THIS CONSENSUS AND FAVORS THE 
ACCELERATED TRACK AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. 
   C. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH 
THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE 
SYSTEM COULD INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY AS IT COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL 
TRANSITION. 
   D. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
FORECAST TEAM: COX/LEEJOICE/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC//

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