WDPN31 PGTW 240300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR 
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 TO 270000Z9 NOV 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED NEAR 15.2N8 130.3E7, 
APPROXIMATELY 700 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, HAS BEEN TRACKING 
NORTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING 
POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. ANIMATED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CONVECTION 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND REDUCED 
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
   B. TD 28W SHOULD TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS (NGPS), JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND 
TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD 
TRACK WHILE THE UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) MODEL INDICATES A SLOWER 
LOOPING TRACK. NGPS, JGSM, AND JTYM INDICATE A RAPID NORTHEAST TRACK 
AND STRONG INTERACTION WITH THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH BY 
THE MID-PERIOD. EGRR DEPICTS A SLOWER TRACK WITH MINIMAL INTERACTION 
WITH THE BAROCLINIC SYSTEM AND A LOOP SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A 
MONSOON SURGE EXPECTED BY THE 36 HR POINT. DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF 
COMPENSATING ERROR MECHANISMS, OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF 
THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
   C. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY UNDER MARGINAL UPPER 
LEVEL CONDITIONS.
   D. FORECASTED WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZED SYSTEM. 
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/KENDALL/MAYER/PIVIN/WEAVER/TON//
BT
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