WDPN31 PGTW 230300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR
19//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 260000Z8 NOV 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED NEAR 11.6N8 127.5E5, 
APPROXIMATELY 120 NM EAST OF SAMAR, HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWARD 
AT 8 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 222330Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 
AND 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DECREASED 
ORGANIZATION IN THE CENTRAL CONVECTION AND UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. 
   B. TD 28W WILL TRACK TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF A LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE 
DYNAMIC AIDS CONSISTING OF NOGAPS (NGPS), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), THE 
UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) AND GFDN MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
WITH THE TRACK. EGRR AND NGPS DEPICT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING 
INTENSITY, WHILE GFDN WEAKENS THE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED 
MODELS.
   C. TD 28W REMAINS UNDER FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT, BUT WILL 
CONTINUE TO ENCOUNTER WEAK TO MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT 
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
   D. SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. 
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/JACOBS/SHERRY//