WDPN31 PGTW 211500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR
13//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 211200Z6 TO 241200Z9 NOV 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM 
EAST OF LUZON, HAS BEEN MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 211130Z8 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. 
   B. TD 28W SHOULD SLOWLY TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AS IT 
CONTINUES TO ERODE THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING 
EASTWARD FROM LUZON. BY MID-PERIOD, THE MID-LEVEL PATTERN SHOULD BE 
MODIFIED INTO A MORE POLEWARD ENVIRONMENTAL PATTERN, OR, A REVERSE 
MONSOON TROUGH FORMATION. THIS SHOULD CAUSE TD 28W TO TURN TO THE 
NORTH AND BEGIN A TRACK POLEWARD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
CONSISTING OF GFDN, NOGAPS, THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL, AND NCEP 
AVIATION AGREE WITH THE ABOVE SCENARIO. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A 
BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS, THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS, AND 
PERSISTENCE.
   C. SOME INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM REMAINS 
BENEATH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. 
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZED SYSTEM. 
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/WHITCOMB/HARRISON/EDBERG/BOSTIC// 

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