WDPN31 PGTW 200300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR
07//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 200000Z2 TO 230000Z5 NOV 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM 
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS DURING 
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 192330Z8 
VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER JUST SOUTHWEST OF DEEP 
CONVECTION. THE 200 MB ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TD 28W LIES 
EQUATORWARD OF THE RIDGE AXIS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE POLEWARD SIDE.
   B. TD 28W IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF 
THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. 
TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD AND LATER SOUTHWESTWARD AS THE 
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS CONSIST OF THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), NOGAPS 
(NGPS), THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION (AVN), AND 
THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS. NGPS, 
EGRR, AND GFDN TRACK INDICATE A MORE PRONOUNCED SOUTHWEST TRACK AND 
QUASISTATIONARY MOTION LATE IN THE PERIOD. JGSM, JTYM, AND AVN TRACK 
THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED FIELD ANALYSIS AND THE 
MODEL CONSENSUS.
   C. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH THE FORECAST 
PERIOD AS IT REMAINS UNDER MARGINAL CONDITIONS.   
   D. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE 
SIZED SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/BRYANT/MAYER/TON/WEAVER// 
BT
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