WDPN31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 28W WARNING NR 01// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 181200Z2 TO 211200Z6 NOV 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 28W HAS DEVELOPED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH APPROXIMATELY 160 NM SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. TD 28W HAS BEEN MOVING NORHTWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 181130Z4 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS. A 181058Z3 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) PASS REVEALED INCREASED ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. TD 28W LIES UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW COUPLED WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. B. TD 28W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AFTER 12 TO 24 HOURS, TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS CONSIST OF NOGAPS, THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL, AND THE JMA GLOBAL MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS, CLIMATOLOGY, AND PERSISTENCE. C. TD 28W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. D. THE SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. FORECAST WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZED SYSTEM. FORECAST TEAM: VILPORS/WAUGAMAN/SCOTT/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA// NNNN