WDPN31 PGTW 070300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 27W (LINGLING) WARNING NR 05// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 070000Z7 TO 100000Z1 NOV 01. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 27W (LINGLING) HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 062330Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS. MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS CONTINUED IMPROVED ORGANIZATION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPRESSIVE OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. B. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FEATURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. HOWEVER THE SUB- EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND COUNTER THE WESTWARD PROPAGATION OF THE SYSTEM RESULTING IN A SLOWER PROPAGATION. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, COAMPS, GFDN, UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL, NCEP AVIATION AND THE JMA GLOBAL MODELS. ALL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GDFN WHICH DISPLAYS MORE INTERACTION WITH THE SUB-EQUATORIAL RIDGE CAUSING A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK. OUR FORECAST IS BASED PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF ALL THE AVAILABLE MODELS. C. TS 27W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD BENEATH A DIFFLUENT REGION SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS. D. WIND RADII CRITERIA BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY. FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/ROBERTS/HARRISON/WHITCOMB/EDBERG/BOSTIC//