WDPN31 PGTW 061500 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WARNING NR 03// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 061200Z9 TO 091200Z2 NOV 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 27W, LOCATED NEAR LEYTE GULF, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KNOTS AND SYNOPTIC DATA. INFRARED SATELLITE ANIMATION DEPICTS REDUCED COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH THE MAJORITY NOW CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. TD 27W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS. B. TD 27W IS SITUATED SOUTHEAST OF THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM, A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CHINA THAT EXTENDS INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THIS RIDGE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND BEGIN A MORE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD TRACK BY THE MID-PERIOD. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS INCLUDE NOGAPS, GFDN, COAMPS, UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL, NCEP AVIATION AND THE JMA GLOBAL MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE MODELS AND PERSISTENCE. C. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TD AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS AND LATER INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. D. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT MEET WIND RADII CRITERIA. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/KENDALL/MAYER/WEAVER/TON// BT #XXXX NNNN