WDPN31 PGTW 270300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 270000Z9 TO 300000Z3 OCT 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM 
NORTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 
24 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
262330Z6 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 
KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND 
COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES 
TO WEAKEN AND IS NEAR THE MID-POINT OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
   B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH 
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR THE 
24 HOUR POINT. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) 
AND TYPHOON (JTYM), THE UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), NCEP AVIATION 
(AVN), GFDN AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACK 
ORIENTATION AND SPEED OF MOTION. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE. 
   C. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS OVER 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTERACTS WITH MIDLATITUDE 
WESTERLIES.
   D. CURRENT WIND RADII ARE BASED ON A RECENT QUICKSCAT PASS. WIND 
RADII FORECAST IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PIVIN/MAYER/WEAVER/TON//
BT
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