SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) WARNING NR 
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 250000Z7 TO 280000Z0 OCT 01.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 655 NM 
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
242330Z4 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 127 
KNOTS. ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE SYSTEM HAS A 30 NM 
EYE. 
   B. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM INFLUENCES THE STEERING PATTERN. AFTERWARD, 
STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE 
WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE 
TROUGH OUT OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF THE JMA GLOBAL 
(JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM), THE GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY 
(GFDN), THE UKMET 
OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NOGAPS MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN 
TRACK ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, DIFFER SLIGHTLY IN THE SPEED OF MOTION. 
THE
JTYM AND GFDN MODELS PROG THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE OTHER THREE 
MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE 
AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE. 
   C. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO 
THE MIDLATITUDES AND ENCOUNTERS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. WIND RADII 
FORECAST IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/WARREN/JACOBS/CUTMAN/NUTONGLA//