WDPN31 PGTW 241500 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) WARNING NR 
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 241200Z9 TO 271200Z2 OCT 01.
   A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM 
WEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS BEEN TRACKING WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 241130Z1 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. 
   B. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN A NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM NEAR 30.0N3 161.0E8 INFLUENCES THE STEERING 
PATTERN. AFTERWARD, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN TO THE 
NORTHEAST AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EASTWARD WITH THE APPROACH 
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OUT OF JAPAN. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS 
AGREE IN TRACK ORIENTATION, HOWEVER, DIFFER IN THE SPEED OF MOTION. 
THE JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS AND THE GEOPHYSICAL 
FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN) PROG THE SYSTEM FASTER THAN THE UKMET 
OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) AND NOGAPS MODELS. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON  
PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF THE AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE. 
   C. STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12 
HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS INTO 
THE MIDLATITUDES AND ENCOUNTERS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES. 
   D. WIND RADII ANALYSIS IS BASED ON QUIKSCAT DATA. WIND RADII 
FORECAST IS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.
FORECAST TEAM: LEEJOICE/WHITCOMB/ROBERTS/EDBERG/BOSTIC//