WDPN31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 230000Z5 TO 260000Z8 OCT 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 
222330Z2 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 100 
AND 115 KNOTS. A 221953Z2 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGE (SSM/I) 
PASS REVEALED A BANDING EYE AND AN INTENSE RAINBAND IN THE WESTERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS ALOFT WITH DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS.
   B. TY 26W CONTINUES ON A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK BETWEEN THE 
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED SOUTH OF JAPAN AND A 
CUTOFF LOW SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM 
OF TY 26W REMAINS A MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SOUTHEAST OF THE 
SYSTEM. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
AMPLIFICATION OF THE SHORTWAVE PATTERN NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A 
DYNAMIC SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND PASS NORTH OF TY 
26W, THEREFORE, A SLIGHT JOG WEST IS FORECAST BEFORE THE TRACK 
RESUMES A POLEWARD MOTION NEAR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS OF NCEP AVIATION (AVN), GEOPHYSICAL FLUID 
DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN), THE UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), AND THE JMA 
GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, 
AND NOGAPS IS AN OUTLIER. JGSM, AVN, EGRR, JTYM, GFDN DEPICT A FAST 
MOVING SHORTWAVE RIDGE TRACKING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM WITH VARYING 
DEGREES OF THE WESTWARD JOG BEFORE TURNING MORE POLEWARD. NOGAPS 
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG WESTWARD BIAS AND EXCESSIVE INTERACTION 
WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON AN ENSEMBLE OF THE 
AVAILABLE DYNAMIC MODELS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS.  
   C. TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE FOR 
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AS IT TRACKS UNDER A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL 
ENVIRONMENT.
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE 
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND A RECENT QUIKSCAT GALE WIND ANALYSIS. 
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/PIVIN/MAYER/WEAVER/TON//
BT
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