844 WTPN31 PGTW 240300 1. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 240000Z6 --- NEAR 16.7N4 157.2E5 MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 040 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N4 157.2E5 --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z9 --- 17.8N6 156.4E6 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z7 --- 19.2N2 155.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 045 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z0 --- 20.4N6 155.3E4 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 035 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z8 --- 22.1N5 155.6E7 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z9 --- 27.5N4 158.6E0 MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT RADIUS OF 100 KT WINDS - 030 NM RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 035 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 240300Z9 POSITION NEAR 17.0N8 157.0E3. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING CONCENTRIC OUTER EYEWALL; BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z6 IS 30 FEET. REFER TO WWPW30 RJTX FOR ADDITIONAL SEA HEIGHT INFORMATION. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240900Z5, 241500Z2, 242100Z9 AND 250300Z0.//  847 WDPN31 PGTW 240300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) WARNING NR 21// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 240000Z6 TO 270000Z9 OCT 01. A. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (PODUL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND, HAS BEEN TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 232330Z3 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 140 KNOTS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY REVEALS A DEVELOPING CONCENTRIC OUTER EYEWALL; BOTH SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM IS NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY. B. A MAJOR SHORTWAVE RIDGE IS PASSING NORTH OF STY 26W AND THE PERIPHERAL RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF A DIGGING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIRECT STY 26W INCREASING POLEWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. BY THE MID PERIOD, STY 26W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TURN NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC AIDS ARE IN FAIR TRACK AGREEMENT AND REFLECT A SIMILAR SCENARIO. NCEP AVIATION (AVN), JMA GLOBAL (JGSM) AND TYPHOON (JTYM) MODELS, GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN), THE UKMET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR), NOGAPS AND COAMPS WERE EVALUATED IN THE FORECAST. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A BLEND OF MODEL GUIDANCE. C. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY. A SLOW WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST BEYOND THE MID PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES BEGIN TO CONSTRAIN THE OUTFLOW. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED AVAILABLE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/WEAVER/TON//  089 ABPZ20 KNHC 240317 TWOEP TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 10 PM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001 FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. FORECASTER FRANKLIN  826 AXPZ20 KNHC 240341 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION TROPICAL ANALYSIS AND FORECAST BRANCH TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC WED 24 OCT 2001 EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO THE EQUATOR...EAST OF 140W. BASED ON 24/0000 UTC SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS... ...TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY ALONG 88W/89W NOW ALONG 90W/91W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT. ...1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 10N121W. ...RIDGE 17N120W 24N125W THROUGH 32N132W. INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 24/0245 UTC... AXIS OF ITCZ RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION... 5N77W 11N93W 13N101W 10N108W 11N118W 6N124W 8N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 86W...BETWEEN 100W AND 107W...AND BETWEEN 115W AND 122W. ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 32N... NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 88W AND 90W...FROM EL SALVADOR TO GUATEMALA BETWEEN HONDURAS AND 90W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL CLUSTER FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 140W AND 142W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE N OF 23N BETWEEN 110W AND 130W. TICHACEK NNNN  677 TPPN10 PGTW 240312 A. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) B. 24/0230Z C. 16.9N/6 D. 157.1E/4 E. TWO/GMS F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS (23/2330Z) G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI LLCC 03A/PBO 23NM RND EYE/ANMTN. ODT 7.0. MAYER  813 TPPN10 KGWC 240317 A. SUPER TYPHOON 26W (PODUL) B. 24/0231Z (107) C. 16.9N/6 D. 157.1E/4 E. TWO/SATELLITE F. T7.0/7.0/D1.0/24HRS -23/2331Z- G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI 03A/ PBO 21NM ROUND EYE/ANMTN. LAURENTI  570 WTJP31 RJTD 240300 WARNING 240300. WARNING VALID 250300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0122 PODUL (0122) 930 HPA AT 16.8N 157.0E SOUTH OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 19.4N 156.3E WITH 90 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=  248 WWIN40 DEMS 240300 I W B 24TH MNG: A TRH OF LOW ON SLC LIES OVER N ADM SEA AND ADJ EC BAY AND ARAKAN COT (.) ASSCTD CYCIR EXTDS UPTO 3.1 KM ASL (.) LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED (.) THE TRH OF LOW OFF SRI-LANKA-SOUTH T NADU COTS OVER SW AND ADJ SE BAY PERSISTS (.) THE TRH OF LOW ON SLC FROM N KKA COT TO LKDWP AREA ALSO PERSISTS (.) THE WD AS AN UA SYSTEM OVER J AND K AND N/H IN LOWER LEVELS MOVING AWAY NE-WARDS (.) FCST:RA OR TSH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MOST PLACES A AND N IDS AT MANY PLACES IN T NADU KERALA, AT FEW PLACES IN CAP R'SEEMA LKDWP AND AT ISOL PLACES ORISSA J AND K S M MAHA S TELNG AND KKA (.) MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY (.) HRW:XX RA LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ISOL PLACES IN A AND N IDS T NADU AND KERALA DURING NEXT 48 HRS (.)  292 WWIN40 DEMS 240300 I W B 24TH MNG: A TRH OF LOW ON SLC LIES OVER N ADM SEA AND ADJ EC BAY AND ARAKAN COT (.) ASSCTD CYCIR EXTDS UPTO 3.1 KM ASL (.) LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED (.) THE TRH OF LOW OFF SRI-LANKA-SOUTH T NADU COTS OVER SW AND ADJ SE BAY PERSISTS (.) THE TRH OF LOW ON SLC FROM N KKA COT TO LKDWP AREA ALSO PERSISTS (.) THE WD AS AN UA SYSTEM OVER J AND K AND N/H IN LOWER LEVELS MOVING AWAY NE-WARDS (.) FCST:RA OR TSH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MOST PLACES A AND N IDS AT MANY PLACES IN T NADU KERALA, AT FEW PLACES IN CAP R'SEEMA LKDWP AND AT ISOL PLACES ORISSA J AND K S M MAHA S TELNG AND KKA (.) MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY (.) HRW:XX RA LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ISOL PLACES IN A AND N IDS T NADU AND KERALA DURING NEXT 48 HRS (.)  096 WWIN40 DEMS 240300 I W B 24TH MNG:(CORECCTED) A LOPAR HAS FORMED OVER N ADHMN SEA AND ADJ EC BAY AND ARAKAN COT (.) ASSCTD CYCIR EXTDS UPTO 3.1 KM ASL (.) LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED (.) THE TRH OF LOW OFF SRI-LANKA-SOUTH T NADU COTS OVER SW AND ADJ SE BAY PERSISTS (.) THE TRH OF LOW ON SLC FROM N KKA COT TO LKDWP AREA ALSO PERSISTS (.) THE WD AS AN UA SYSTEM OVER J AND K AND N/H IN LOWER LEVELS MOVING AWAY NE-WARDS (.) FCST:RA OR TSH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MOST PLACES A AND N IDS AT MANY PLACES IN T NADU KERALA, AT FEW PLACES IN CAP R'SEEMA LKDWP AND AT ISOL PLACES ORISSA J AND K S M MAHA S TELNG AND KKA (.) MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY (.) HRW:XX RA LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ISOL PLACES IN A AND N IDS T NADU AND KERALA DURING NEXT 48 HRS (.)  239 WWIN40 DEMS 240300 I W B 24TH MNG:(CORECCTED) A LOPAR HAS FORMED OVER N ADHMN SEA AND ADJ EC BAY AND ARAKAN COT (.) ASSCTD CYCIR EXTDS UPTO 3.1 KM ASL (.) LIKELY TO BECOME MORE MARKED (.) THE TRH OF LOW OFF SRI-LANKA-SOUTH T NADU COTS OVER SW AND ADJ SE BAY PERSISTS (.) THE TRH OF LOW ON SLC FROM N KKA COT TO LKDWP AREA ALSO PERSISTS (.) THE WD AS AN UA SYSTEM OVER J AND K AND N/H IN LOWER LEVELS MOVING AWAY NE-WARDS (.) FCST:RA OR TSH ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR AT MOST PLACES A AND N IDS AT MANY PLACES IN T NADU KERALA, AT FEW PLACES IN CAP R'SEEMA LKDWP AND AT ISOL PLACES ORISSA J AND K S M MAHA S TELNG AND KKA (.) MAINLY DRY WX WILL PREVAIL OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY (.) HRW:XX RA LIKELY TO OCCUR AT ISOL PLACES IN A AND N IDS T NADU AND KERALA DURING NEXT 48 HRS (.)