OTTUZYUW RHHMFWCXXXX 2791401-UUUU--RHMCSUU.
ZNR UUUUU
O 061401Z OCT 01
FM NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//JTWC//
TO AIG 6841
USS COWPENS
CTE 12.5.1.5
MV GREEN WAVE
PSBR BCST//SID 80//
BT
UNCLAS //N03145//
WDPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 24W (KROSA) WARNING NR 
12//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 061200Z9 TO 091200Z2 OCT 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (KROSA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS DURING THE 
PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 061130Z1 INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED 
SLIGHTLY, AND NOW HAS A 7NM CLOUD FILLED EYE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD OUTFLOW POLEWARD OF THE CENTER.
   B. TY 24W IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD UNDER THE 
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE 
NORTHEAST THROUGH 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO 
TRACK MORE NORTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE 
WESTERLIES NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE AVAILABLE DYNAMIC 
AIDS OF NOGAPS (NGPS), AVIATION (AVN), JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL MODEL 
(JGSM), 
GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS-NAVY (GFDN), AND THE UKMET-OFFICE GLOBAL 
(EGRR) MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK. HOWEVER, THE GUIDANCE 
VARIES IN SPEED WITH JGSM TRACKING THE SYSTEM MORE SLOWLY NORTH, AND 
THE OTHER MODELS INDICATING FASTER ACCELERATION TO THE NORTHEAST. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF NGPS, 
JGSM , GFDN, AND EGRR. 
   C. TY 24W IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INTO 
INCREASING SHEAR AND STRONGER MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. 
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE 
SYSTEM.
FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/BALDINGER/JACOBS/PIVIN//