WDPN33 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 27//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 251200Z0 TO 270000Z9 SEP 01.
   A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 
35 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 251130Z2 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 AND 65 KNOTS. 
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS A PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT ENTRAINED 
INTO THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST.
   B. TS 22W HAS TRACKED RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING 
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST COMBINED WITH 
MID-LATITUDE SOUTWESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM TROUGH. TS 
22W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AS IT 
COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IN 6 HOURS. THE NUMERICAL 
CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF GEOPHYSICAL FLUID DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), JMA 
TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), NOGAPS (NGPS), AND THE 
UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED 
OF ADVANCE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS 
CONSISTING OF FIVE MODELS (GFDN, JTYM, JGSM, NGPS, AND EGRR).
   C. TY 22W HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS 
THE SYSTEM COMPLETES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.   
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY. 
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/VILPORS/HARRISON/CUTMAN//



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