WDPN33 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 22W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 25000Z7 TO 280000Z0 SEP 01.
   A. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HOKKAIDO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 19 
KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED 
ON 242330Z4 VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING 
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 
AND 65 KNOTS. A 242056Z9 SPECIAL SENSOR MICROWAVE IMAGER (SSM/I) 
PASS DEPICTED AN ERODED EYEWALL AND SUPPRESSED CONVECTION IN THE 
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. 
   B. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE SOUTHEAST REMAINS A 
IMPORTANT STEERING INFLUENCE AS MID-LATITUDE SOUTWESTERLIES DIP 
SOUTH AND BEGIN INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM. THEREFORE, TY 22W IS 
EXPECTED TO TRACK RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTS OF FIVE MODELS - GEOPHYSICAL FLUID 
DYNAMICS NAVY (GFDN), JMA TYPHOON (JTYM) AND GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), 
NOGAPS (NGPS), AND THE UK-MET OFFICE GLOBAL (EGRR) - AND ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT ON TRACK AND SPEED OF ADVANCE. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON 
THE NUMERICAL AIDS CONSENSUS BLENDED WITH PERSISTENCE.
   C. TY 22W IS TRACKING BENEATH STRONG MID-LATITUDE SOUTHWESTERLIES 
AND HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE 
SYSTEM UNDERGOES EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE TRANSITION SHOULD BE 
COMPLETED IN 12-24 HOURS.   
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY. 
FORECAST TEAM: SMITH/MAYER/TON//
BT
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