WDPN33 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (FRANCISCO) WARNING 
NR 9 RELOCATED//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 210000Z3 TO 240000Z6 SEP 01.
   A. RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS THAT TS 22W IS SITUATED 
FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED. THEREFORE, BASED ON 
CURRENT IMAGERY, WE HAVE RELOCATED THE POSITION APPROXIMATELY 114 NM 
TO THE NORTHWEST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING POSITION. TROPICAL STORM 
(TS) 22W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 520 NM NORTHEAST OF 
SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 202330Z0 INFRARED AND 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON 
SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 45 AND 65 KNOTS. LATEST 
IMAGERY DEPICTS NEW BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER.
   B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF A 
MID-LEVEL HIGH SITUATED EAST OF JAPAN NEAR 34.5N2 170.0E8 THROUGH 
THE PERIOD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS (NOGAPS, GFDN, AVN RUN OF THE MRF, 
JMA GLOBAL AND TYPHOON, UKMET-O GLOBAL GRID, COAMPS) ARE GOOD 
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE 36 TAU. AFTERWARD, THE MODELS BREAK UP INTO 
TWO CLUSTERS BASED PRIMARILY ON SPEED OF MOTION. AVN, TYPHOON AND 
THE JMA GLOBAL ALL TRACK AT A SLOWER, CLIMATOLOGICAL, SPEED (8 TO 11 
KNOTS) COMPARED TO UKMET-O, GFDN, AND NOGAPS TRACKERS (12 TO 15 
KNOTS). THE FASTER SOA IS IN RESPONSE TO A MORE PRONOUNCED, 
STRONGER, MID-LEVEL HIGH. BASED ON WHAT WE HAVE SEEN DURING THE PAST 
24 HOURS (PAST MOTION, 500 MB 24 HOUR TREND, AND WATER VAPOR 
IMAGERY) AN SOA JUST ABOVE CLIMO SPEED SEEMS TO BE THE LOGICAL 
CHOICE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND A 
NUMERICAL CONSENSUS CONSISTING OF ALL OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS.
   C. A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC LOW SITUATED NORTH-NORTHEAST OF 
THE MARIANA ISLANDS, CONTINUES TO ENHANCE OUTFLOW OVER THE SYSTEM. 
THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO RETROGRADE WHICH IN TURN SHOULD PROVIDE 
A DIFFLUENT WIND FIELD ALOFT THROUGH THE PERIOD. THEREFORE, TS 22W 
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
   D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND CLIMATOLOGY FOR 
AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//