WDPN33 PGTW 190300 COR MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (NONAME) WARNING NR 1// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 190000Z0 TO 220000Z4 SEP 01. A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 22W (NO NAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 182330Z7 INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS BASED ON SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KNOTS. ANIMATED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER LOCATED UNDER THE WESTERN EDGE OF ITS ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. B. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. NOGAPS (NGPS), THE JMA GLOBAL SPECTRAL (JGSM), THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS (BAMS), AND CSUM ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT TRACKING THE SYSTEM WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE NUMERICAL CONSENSUS OF THE TWO DYNAMICAL AIDS (NGPS,JGSM) BLENDED WITH THE BETA ADVECTION MODELS AND CSUM. C. TD 22W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. D. WIND RADII ARE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY FOR AN AVERAGE SIZE TROPICAL CYCLONE. 3. JUSTIFICATION FOR COR: CHANGED DIRECTION IN PARA 2.B. TO READ WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FORECAST TEAM: MAZANY/MORRIS/EDBERG//