WDPN32 PGTW 060300 
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL//JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (NARI) WARNING 
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR 060000Z6 TO 080000Z8 SEP 01.
   A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 20W (NARI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100
NM EAST OF THE TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS 
DURING THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE WARNING POSITION IS BASED ON 052330Z3 
INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE WARNING INTENSITY IS 
BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 AND 30 KNOTS.  
RECENT MULTI-SPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW 
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER EAST OF A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION.
   B. TD 20W IS SITUATED WITHIN A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. 
THE UKMET-O GRID-POINT, JMA GLOBAL, NOGAPS AND THE KMA GLOBAL ALL 
AGREE WITH A SLOW DRIFTING MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EITHER 
SLIGHT INTERACTION BY MID PERIOD WITH A WEAK RIDGE BUILDING OVER 
CHINA OR INDIRECT INTERACTION WITH TY 19W (DANAS). BOTTOM LINE, ALL
AGREE WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS BASED ON PERSISTENCE AND THE ABOVE MODEL CONSENSUS. 
   C. LITTLE INTENSITY CHANGE IS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  
   D. TD 20W CURRENTLY DOES NOT MEET CRITERIA FOR WIND RADII.  
FORECAST TEAM: ROBERTS/BALDINGER/HARRISON//